Track Record

Are prediction markets right? When the markets said 70%, how often did it happen? Every outcome of every market 4IceHockey followed to its result counts once, at the chance traders gave it the day before it closed.

Markets settled448909 outcomes
The favorite won61%of 308 markets with one
Brier score0.2200 is perfect, 0.25 a coin flip

Calibration

0% 0% 20% 20% 40% 40% 60% 60% 80% 80% 100% 100% Priced 0–10% (average 2%): happened 4% of 28 times Priced 10–20% (average 16%): happened 9% of 11 times Priced 20–30% (average 27%): happened 27% of 125 times Priced 30–40% (average 34%): happened 35% of 273 times Priced 40–50% (average 45%): happened 48% of 161 times Priced 50–60% (average 55%): happened 52% of 159 times Priced 60–70% (average 64%): happened 66% of 97 times Priced 70–80% (average 74%): happened 72% of 25 times Priced 80–90% (average 83%): happened 73% of 11 times Priced 90–100% (average 97%): happened 84% of 19 times The market's chance a day before How often it happened
Markets priced it Outcomes Average chance Happened
0–10% 28 2% 4%
10–20% 11 16% 9%
20–30% 125 27% 27%
30–40% 273 34% 35%
40–50% 161 45% 48%
50–60% 159 55% 52%
60–70% 97 64% 66%
70–80% 25 74% 72%
80–90% 11 83% 73%
90–100% 19 97% 84%

A perfectly calibrated market sits on the dashed line: things it priced at 70% happen 70% of the time. Each dot is a tenth of the scale; its size, how many outcomes it holds.

By topic

Outcomes Brier Favorite won
Hockey 909 0.220 61% of 308

The Brier score is the average squared gap between the chance and what happened (1 if it did, 0 if not): lower is better.

By venue

Outcomes Brier Favorite won
Kalshi 909 0.220 —

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4IceHockey, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4IceHockey index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4IceHockey Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions